34.4. Market risk

4.1 Hedging policy and financial derivatives

During the course of its general business activities, the Volkswagen Group is exposed to foreign currency, interest rate, commodity price, equity price and fund price risk. Corporate policy is to limit or eliminate such risk by means of hedging. All necessary hedging transactions with the exception of the Scania, MAN and Porsche Holding GmbH (Salzburg) subgroups are executed or coordinated centrally by Group Treasury. There were no significant risk concentrations in the past fiscal year.

The following table shows the gains and losses on hedges:

The ineffective portion of cash flow hedges represents the income and expenses from changes in the fair value of hedging instruments that exceed the changes in the fair value of the hedged items but that are documented to be within the permitted range of 80% to 125% overall when measuring effectiveness. Such income or expenses are recognized directly in the financial result.

In 2015, €3,864 million (previous year: €298 million), in both cases reducing earnings, from the cash flow hedge reserve was transferred to the other operating result, while €3 million (previous year: €2 million, increasing earnings) was transferred to the financial result, reducing earnings, and €90 million (previous year: €27 million), in both cases reducing earnings, was included in the cost of sales.

The Volkswagen Group uses two different methods to present market risk from nonderivative and derivative financial instruments in accordance with IFRS 7. For quantitative risk measurement, interest rate and foreign currency risk in the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup are measured using a value-at-risk (VaR) model on the basis of a historical simulation, while market risk in the other Group companies is determined using a sensitivity analysis. The value-at-risk calculation indicates the size of the maximum potential loss on the portfolio as a whole within a time horizon of 40 days, measured at a confidence level of 99%. To provide the basis for this calculation, all cash flows from nonderivative and derivative financial instruments are aggregated into an interest rate gap analysis. The historical market data used in calculating value at risk covers a period of 1,000 trading days. The sensitivity analysis calculates the effect on equity and profit or loss by modifying risk variables within the respective market risks.

4.2 Market risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services)

4.2.1 Foreign currency risk

Foreign currency risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services) is attributable to investments, financing measures and operating activities. Currency forwards, currency options, currency swaps and cross-currency swaps are used to limit foreign currency risk. These transactions relate to the exchange rate hedging of all material payments covering general business activities that are not made in the functional currency of the respective Group companies. The principle of matching currencies applies to the Group’s financing activities.

Hedging transactions entered into in 2015 as part of foreign currency risk management related primarily to the Australian dollar, the Brazilian real, sterling, the Chinese renminbi, the Indian rupee, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, the Polish zloty, the Russian ruble, the Swedish krona, the Swiss franc, the Singapore dollar, the South African rand, the South Korean won, the Taiwan dollar, the Czech koruna, the Hungarian forint and the US dollar.

All nonfunctional currencies in which the Volkswagen Group enters into financial instruments are included as relevant risk variables in the sensitivity analysis in accordance with IFRS 7.

If the functional currencies concerned had appreciated or depreciated by 10% against the other currencies, the exchange rates shown below would have resulted in the following effects on the hedging reserve in equity and on earnings after tax. It is not appropriate to add together the individual figures, since the results of the various functional currencies concerned are based on different scenarios.

4.2.2 Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services) results from changes in market interest rates, primarily for medium- and long-term variable interest receivables and liabilities. Interest rate swaps and cross-currency swaps are entered into to hedge against this risk primarily under fair value or cash flow hedges, and depending on market conditions. Intragroup financing arrangements are mainly structured to match the maturities of their refinancing. Departures from the Group standard are subject to centrally defined limits and monitored on an ongoing basis.

Interest rate risk within the meaning of IFRS 7 is calculated for these companies using sensitivity analyses. The effects of the risk-variable market rates of interest on the financial result and on equity are presented, net of tax.

If market interest rates had been 100 bps higher as of December 31, 2015, equity would have been €71 million (previous year: €108 million) lower. If market interest rates had been 100 bps lower as of December 31, 2015, equity would have been €69 million (previous year: €106 million) higher.

If market interest rates had been 100 bps higher as of December 31, 2015, earnings after tax would have been €81 million (previous year: €43 million) higher. If market interest rates had been 100 bps lower as of December 31, 2015, earnings after tax would have been €95 million (previous year: €55 million) lower.

4.2.3 Commodity price risk

Commodity price risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services) primarily results from price fluctuations and the availability of nonferrous metals and precious metals, as well as of coal, CO₂ certificates and rubber. Forward transactions and swaps are entered into to limit these risks.

Hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 was applied in some cases to the hedging of commodity risk associated with aluminum and coal.

Commodity price risk within the meaning of IFRS 7 is presented using sensitivity analyses. These show the effect on earnings after tax and equity of changes in risk variables in the form of commodity prices.

If the commodity prices of the hedged nonferrous metals, coal and rubber had been 10% higher (lower) as of December 31, 2015, earnings after tax would have been €75 million (previous year: €126 million) higher (lower).

If the commodity prices of the hedging transactions accounted for using hedge accounting had been 10% higher (lower) as of December 31, 2015, equity would have been €41 million (previous year: €55 million) higher (lower).

4.2.4 Equity and bond price risk

The Spezialfonds (special funds) launched using surplus liquidity and the equity interests measured at fair value are subject in particular to equity price and bond price risk, which can arise from fluctuations in quoted market prices, stock exchange indices and market rates of interest. The changes in bond prices resulting from variations in the market rates of interest are quantified in sections 4.2.1 and 4.2.2, as are the measurement of foreign currency and other interest rate risks arising from the special funds and the equity interests measured at fair value. As a rule, we counter the risks arising from the special funds by ensuring a broad diversification of products, issuers and regional markets when investing funds, as stipulated by our Investment Guidelines. In addition, we use exchange rate hedges in the form of futures contracts when market conditions are appropriate.

As part of the presentation of market risk, IFRS 7 requires disclosures on how hypothetical changes in risk variables affect the price of financial instruments. Potential risk variables here are in particular quoted market prices or indices, as well as interest rate changes as bond price parameters.

If share prices had been 10% higher as of December 31, 2015, equity would have been €53 million (previous year: €259 million) higher. If share prices had been 10% lower as of December 31, 2015, equity would have been €61 million (previous year: €275 million) lower.

4.3 Market risk at Volkswagen Financial Services

Exchange rate risk in the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup is mainly attributable to assets that are not denominated in the functional currency and from refinancing within operating activities. Interest rate risk relates to refinancing without matching maturities and the varying interest rate elasticity of individual asset and liability items. The risks are limited by the use of currency and interest rate hedges.

Microhedges and portfolio hedges are used for interest rate hedging. Fixed-rate assets and liabilities included in the hedging strategy are recognized at fair value, as opposed to their original subsequent measurement at amortized cost. The resulting effects in the income statement are offset by the corresponding gains and losses on the interest rate hedging instruments (swaps). Currency hedges (currency forwards and cross-currency swaps) are used to mitigate foreign currency risk. All cash flows in foreign currency are hedged.

As of December 31, 2015, the value at risk was €179 million (previous year: €98 million) for interest rate risk and €196 million (previous year: €112 million) for foreign currency risk.

The entire value at risk for interest rate and foreign currency risk at the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup was €245 million (previous year: €179 million).