Global economic development
In our plans, we assume that the global economic growth in 2016 will be level with the previous year. Risks will arise from turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, growth prospects continue to be hurt by geopolitical tensions and conflicts. We expect the economic upturn to continue in most industrialized nations, with moderate rates of expansion overall. As in the previous year, growth will in all probability be muted in many emerging markets. We expect the strongest rates of expansion in Asia’s emerging economies.
We anticipate that the global economy will also continue to grow in the period 2017 to 2020.
In Western Europe, the economic recovery is expected to continue in 2016. Resolving structural problems will continue to represent a major challenge in this regard.
For Central Europe, we expect growth rates to be similar to those of the past fiscal year. In Eastern Europe, the economic situation should stabilize, providing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not deteriorate. Russia’s economy will probably contract further, but at a slower pace than in the reporting period.
Political uncertainty and social tensions resulting primarily from high unemployment levels will probably continue to weigh on the South African economy in 2016 and keep growth down.
The German economy is expected to expand further in 2016 at slightly higher growth rates than in the reporting period. The situation in the labor market is also expected to remain stable.
For North America, we anticipate that the robust economic performance will continue in 2016. Growth in the USA and in Canada is expected to remain stable compared with the previous year, while the Mexican economy is slated to expand at a slightly slower rate.
Mainly because of sluggish domestic demand, Brazil will probably record negative growth again in 2016. Weighed down by persistently high inflation and the muted business climate, economic growth in Argentina is expected to be slow.
Economic growth in China is expected to remain at a high level in 2016, but to lose further momentum compared to previous years. For India, we anticipate stable growth at comparatively high rates of expansion. In Japan, the economic situation will probably only improve slightly. In the ASEAN region, we estimate that the economy will continue to expand at approximately the same rate as in the reporting period.